Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis courtesy of RedAlertWagers.com
Written by Lester Cullen on October 8, 2020
Boom...and we’re in Week 6 of the college football season (Corona Edition), even the SEC came to play. We will take a look at some of our consensus plays and provide some opinion based insight to put together some ATS winners.
For starters we will look at the Gators/Aggies matchup. The line has fluctuated from 7 to 6.5 and currently at Caesars Palace the spread is Florida Gators -6.5 -115 and Texas A&M +6.5 -105, linemakers are playing with the juice, moving it around a bit and charging to get the dog, they must think they have the number nailed at a touchdown spread and MAC is looking to beat that number!
Florida Gators vs Texas A&M Aggies
The Florida Gators have come out of the gate hot, QB Kyle Trask throwing 10 TD passes through their opening two games of the season. They have busted open the ATS record, going 8-3-1 through their last 12 games a legit 2-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP poll after Georgia took the lead ahead of them following the Bulldogs win over Auburn.
The Aggies are 1-1 to start the season and they have a weak secondary that should get destroyed by the Gators offense. The MAC tends to stay away from Conference games because odds are usually tight & tough, it can be hard to find a solid pick, but our consensus groups have the Gators as a move and with the spread less than a TD this game has value
Play - Gators -6.5 (+10 Units)
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games on grass.
Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-1 in Gators last 9 games as a road favorite
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a home underdog.
Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Under is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Boston College Eagles
If you look at the recent trends for the Panthers, you see a team that is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games. That being said, the Panthers have been winning their games outright, they are 3-1 in the early going of the season, they just can’t get a cover, it’s pathetic, oddsmakers are cashing in on Pitt.
The Eagles have been great ATS, covering in 8 of their last 10, but as far as this game, our information is telling us to stay away. Boston College defense has nothing to brag about, unable to stop 3rd conversions makes a case for betting the over, the offense can’t run the ball, averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and they are last in the ACC in both of these categories. Jurkovec has thrown 2 picks, one in the end zone and the Heels took it home for a meaningless win, one good thing is they don’t lose fumbles and are +5 in turnover margin. MAC has Panthers to win this one, the line is -6 and has moved back and forth from 6.5 and 6, but most importantly MAC sees action coming in on the total and is moving on the over, opening at 46 and currently set at 44 this should be an easy 55-60 point game. The trends seems to be the under but going against the grain is why The MAC is one of the most recognized sports gamblers in the industry.
MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Pitt 35 - BC 23
Play - Over 44 (+5 Units)
Play - Pitt -6 (+5 Units)
Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog
Miami Hurricanes vs Clemson Tigers
Given how dominant the Tigers have been in the ACC over the past few years, it is usually a bad idea to bet against them.
The odds makers are giving them too much respect, our scouts are saying the line isn’t this high because of public money, it’s an inflated spread and could be a suckers bet. Let’s consider the fact that the Tigers have failed to cover this season and are now on a run of failing to cover in 4 straight games. MAC says play the ML hedge if laying the points, be smart and use bankroll management.
The Hurricanes have not had a lot of joy against Clemson in recent years, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference foes. With 43.3 points scored this season they are ranked #7, this could be another over play, though with the total set at 62, we will have to wait to see some line movement before placing any action on it.
MAC has no apprehension when it comes to taking a shot and going against the grain, it’s what makes him a Vegas specialty. Take Miami to cover, take them, take the points, and take it to the bank.
MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Miami 21 - Clemson 35
Play: Miami +15 (+15 Units)
Play: Miami ML +450 (+4 UNITS)
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
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